Ulti every turn

Started by Wackaman9001, March 16, 2013, 04:52:50 PM

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Arcadi_tepes

Quote from: Leevai420 on August 13, 2013, 11:19:10 PM
16%chance not to get an xtra turn compared to 84% to get atleast 1 xtra turn.
Probability of a tail in one flip =0.5
A second tail = 0.5*0.5.=0.25
5 tails= (.5)^ 5=0.03125

If there's any special conditions I'm missing I'd love to hear it, but this is fairly clean and simple probabilities.

Mlerner, try old quarters. They lean toward more heads.

Double-O-Scotch

I second this. Old quarters are more likely to come up heads than tails.

Leevai420

Quote from: Arcadi_tepes on August 15, 2013, 03:50:12 PM
Quote from: Leevai420 on August 13, 2013, 11:19:10 PM
16%chance not to get an xtra turn compared to 84% to get atleast 1 xtra turn.
Probability of a tail in one flip =0.5
A second tail = 0.5*0.5.=0.25
5 tails= (.5)^ 5=0.03125

If there's any special conditions I'm missing I'd love to hear it, but this is fairly clean and simple probabilities.

Mlerner, try old quarters. They lean toward more heads.

I'm looking at the probability of your results. You can only have 1 of 6 result from talks ultimate.
HHHHH
TTTTT
HHHHT
TTTTH
HHTTT
TTHHH

So like I said 1/6 chance of getting no turns.

Double-O-Scotch

Quote from: Leevai420 on August 15, 2013, 05:55:46 PM
Quote from: Arcadi_tepes on August 15, 2013, 03:50:12 PM
Quote from: Leevai420 on August 13, 2013, 11:19:10 PM
16%chance not to get an xtra turn compared to 84% to get atleast 1 xtra turn.
Probability of a tail in one flip =0.5
A second tail = 0.5*0.5.=0.25
5 tails= (.5)^ 5=0.03125

If there's any special conditions I'm missing I'd love to hear it, but this is fairly clean and simple probabilities.

Mlerner, try old quarters. They lean toward more heads.

I'm looking at the probability of your results. You can only have 1 of 6 result from talks ultimate.
HHHHH
TTTTT
HHHHT
TTTTH
HHTTT
TTHHH

So like I said 1/6 chance of getting no turns.

Your math is flawed, sir.

Black Death

Guys there is 1/6chance 5 heads 4 heads 3 heads 2 heads 1heads 0head now referring back tousle school u divide 6 into 1 giving u 0.16 the six repeating or if u round 0.17 now u put it into precent making it 17% u don't get any heads

Wackaman9001

Flipping a heads =.5 chance yes?
.5^6 = .015625 or about 1.6% , highly unlikely

Leevai420

Quote from: Wackaman9001 on August 15, 2013, 07:22:18 PM
Flipping a heads =.5 chance yes?
.5^6 = .015625 or about 1.6% , highly unlikely
You don't do the percentage per flip. Your always going to have a 50/50 chance when you flip the coin. But because you flip it 5x you tally the total possible results instead of the individual flip.

Wackaman9001

Its the same math as rolling 3 dice and each ending on a 1, or at least the same concept. You can test it if you would like but the math is sound.

griffin131

Quote from: Leevai420 on August 15, 2013, 05:55:46 PM
I'm looking at the probability of your results. You can only have 1 of 6 result from talks ultimate.
HHHHH
TTTTT
HHHHT
TTTTH
HHTTT
TTHHH

So like I said 1/6 chance of getting no turns.
You forgot
HTHTH
THTHT
THTTT
HTTTT
TTHTT
TTTHT
TTTTH

etc.

Leevai420

The order doesn't matter just the total number of possible heads and tails in 5 flips of a coin. Those are the odds you go by.

Arcadi_tepes

Quote from: Leevai420 on August 16, 2013, 12:31:49 AM
The order doesn't matter just the total number of possible heads and tails in 5 flips of a coin. Those are the odds you go by.
The order maters in the sense that you are ignoring possible outcomes.  HTHTH and HTTHH are two possible events not one.  In other words, you are right that there's only 6 types of outcomes, but the probabilities of each are not the same.  Seriously, try it.  By your count there's 33% chance of a HH or HT or TT with two flips, rather than 25% of HH, HT, TH, or TT.  Does experimenting pan out on those numbers?

Mlerner12

#26
Quote from: Arcadi_tepes on August 16, 2013, 12:44:45 AM
Quote from: Leevai420 on August 16, 2013, 12:31:49 AM
The order doesn't matter just the total number of possible heads and tails in 5 flips of a coin. Those are the odds you go by.
The order maters in the sense that you are ignoring possible outcomes.  HTHTH and HTTHH are two possible events not one.  In other words, you are right that there's only 6 types of outcomes, but the probabilities of each are not the same.  Seriously, try it.  By your count there's 33% chance of a HH or HT or TT with two flips, rather than 25% of HH, HT, TH, or TT.  Does experimenting pan out on those numbers?

As I've always been taught it doesn't matter. This is a COMBINATION, not PERMUTATION, order does not matter.

Mlerner12

Quote from: Arcadi_tepes on August 16, 2013, 12:50:49 AM
Quote from: Mlerner12 on August 16, 2013, 12:49:06 AM
Quote from: Arcadi_tepes on August 16, 2013, 12:44:45 AM
Quote from: Leevai420 on August 16, 2013, 12:31:49 AM
The order doesn't matter just the total number of possible heads and tails in 5 flips of a coin. Those are the odds you go by.
The order maters in the sense that you are ignoring possible outcomes.  HTHTH and HTTHH are two possible events not one.  In other words, you are right that there's only 6 types of outcomes, but the probabilities of each are not the same.  Seriously, try it.  By your count there's 33% chance of a HH or HT or TT with two flips, rather than 25% of HH, HT, TH, or TT.  Does experimenting pan out on those numbers?

As I've always been taught it doesn't matter. This is a COMBINATION, not OERMUTATION, order does not matter.

You didn't say anything.

Arcadi_tepes

Quote from: Mlerner12 on August 16, 2013, 12:52:30 AM
Quote from: Arcadi_tepes on August 16, 2013, 12:50:49 AM
Quote from: Mlerner12 on August 16, 2013, 12:49:06 AM
Quote from: Arcadi_tepes on August 16, 2013, 12:44:45 AM
Quote from: Leevai420 on August 16, 2013, 12:31:49 AM
The order doesn't matter just the total number of possible heads and tails in 5 flips of a coin. Those are the odds you go by.
The order maters in the sense that you are ignoring possible outcomes.  HTHTH and HTTHH are two possible events not one.  In other words, you are right that there's only 6 types of outcomes, but the probabilities of each are not the same.  Seriously, try it.  By your count there's 33% chance of a HH or HT or TT with two flips, rather than 25% of HH, HT, TH, or TT.  Does experimenting pan out on those numbers?

As I've always been taught it doesn't matter. This is a COMBINATION, not OERMUTATION, order does not matter.

You didn't say anything.
Combination gets you the possible outcomes ignoring permutations yes. But this does not in anyway inform you of the probabilities of each combination.  Which are not the same.  The point is not to figure out the combinations of 5 flips.  The point is the probability of a unique permutation.  That is, there is only one permutation of HHHHH out of 32 permutations.  And only one TTTTT.  But there are several HTTTT permutations.  Five in fact.  And even more HHTTT. The probabilities of these are much greater than that of TTTTT.

Edit: sorry, almost dropped tablet, pushed wrong thing.

griffin131

Similar situation - odds of rolling a 2 on 2d6.
Is it 1/36 or 1/21?

The right answer is 1/36. There are some people who incorrectly assume its 1/21.